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51.
The winter response of the coupled atmosphere?Cocean mixed layer system to anomalous geostrophic ocean heat flux convergence in the Kuroshio Extension is investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an entraining ocean mixed layer model in the extra-tropics. The direct response consists of positive SST anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension and a baroclinic (low-level trough and upper-level ridge) circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. The low-level component of this atmospheric circulation response is weaker in the case without coupling to an extratropical ocean mixed layer, especially in late winter. The inclusion of an interactive mixed layer in the tropics modifies the direct coupled atmospheric response due to a northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which drives an equivalent barotropic anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Although the tropically driven component of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation response is comparable to the direct response in terms of sea level pressure amplitude, it is less important in terms of wind stress curl amplitude due to the mitigating effect of the relatively broad spatial scale of the tropically forced atmospheric teleconnection.  相似文献   
52.
The troposphere affects Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals due to the variability of the refractive index. Tropospheric delay is a function of the satellite elevation angle and the altitude of the GNSS receiver and depends on the atmospheric parameters. If the residual tropospheric delay is not modelled carefully a bias error will occur in the vertical component. In order to analyse the precise altimetric positioning based on a local active network, four scenarios in Southern Spain with different topographical, environmental, and meteorological conditions are presented, considering both favourable and non-favourable conditions. The use of surface meteorological observations allows us to take into account the tropospheric conditions instead of a standard atmosphere, but introduces a residual tropospheric bias which reduces the accuracy of precise GNSS positioning. Thus, with short observation times it is recommended not to estimate troposphere parameters, but to use an a priori model together with the standard atmosphere. The results confirm that it is possible to achieve centimetre-scale vertical accuracy and precision with real time kinematic positioning even with large elevation differences with respect to the nearest reference stations. These numerical results may be taken into consideration for improving the altimetric configuration of the local active network.  相似文献   
53.
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability   总被引:12,自引:7,他引:5  
Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.  相似文献   
54.
The Deep Impact oblique impact cratering experiment   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The Deep Impact probe collided with 9P Tempel 1 at an angle of about 30° from the horizontal. This impact angle produced an evolving ejecta flow field very similar to much smaller scale oblique-impact experiments in porous particulate targets in the laboratory. Similar features and phenomena include a decoupled vapor/dust plume at the earliest times, a pronounced downrange bias of the ejecta, an uprange “zone of avoidance” (ZoA), heart-shaped ejecta ray system (cardioid pattern), and a conical (but asymmetric) ejecta curtain. Departures from nominal cratering evolution, however, provide clues on the nature of the impact target. These departures include: fainter than expected flash at first contact, delayed emergence of the self-luminous vapor/dust plume, uprange-directed plume, narrow early-time uprange ray followed by a late-stage uprange plume, persistence of ejecta asymmetries (and the uprange ZoA) throughout the approach sequence, emergence of a downrange ZoA at late times, detachment of uprange curved rays, very long lasting non-radial ejecta rays, and high-angle ejecta plume lasting over the entire encounter. The first second of crater formation most closely resembles the consequences of a highly porous target, while later evolution indicates that the target may be layered as well. Experiments also reveal that impacts into highly porous targets produce a vapor/dust plume directed back up the incoming trajectory. This uprange plume is attributed to cavitation within a narrow penetration funnel. The observed lateral expansion speed of the initial vapor plume downrange provides an estimate for the total vaporized mass equal to ∼5mp (projectile masses) of water ice or 6mp of CO2. The downrange plume speed is consistent with the gas expansion added to the downrange horizontal component of the DI probe. Based on high-speed spectroscopy of experimental impacts, the observed delay in brightening of the DI plume may be the result of delayed condensation of carbon, in addition to silicates. Observed molecular species in the initial self-luminous vapor plume likely represent recombination products from completely dissociated target materials. The crater produced by the impact can be estimated from Earth-based observations of total ejected mass to be 130-220 m in diameter. This size range is consistent with a 220 m-diameter circular feature at the point of impact visible in highly processed, deconvolved HRI images. The final crater, however, may resemble an inverted sombrero-hat, with a deep central pit surrounded by a shallow excavation crater. Excavated distal material observed from the Earth was likely from the upper few meters contrasted with ballistic ejecta observed from the DI flyby, which included deep materials (10-30 m) within the diffuse plume above the crater and shallower (5-10 m) materials within the ejecta curtain.  相似文献   
55.
The threat of global climate change has caused concern among scientists because crop production could be severely affected by changes in key climatic variables that could compromise food security both globally and locally. Although it is true that extreme climatic events can severely impact small farmers, available data is just a gross approximation at understanding the heterogeneity of small scale agriculture ignoring the myriad of strategies that thousands of traditional farmers have used and still use to deal with climatic variability. Scientists have now realized that many small farmers cope with and even prepare for climate change, minimizing crop failure through a series of agroecological practices. Observations of agricultural performance after extreme climatic events in the last two decades have revealed that resiliency to climate disasters is closely linked to the high level of on-farm biodiversity, a typical feature of traditional farming systems.Based on this evidence, various experts have suggested that rescuing traditional management systems combined with the use of agroecologically based management strategies may represent the only viable and robust path to increase the productivity, sustainability and resilience of peasant-based agricultural production under predicted climate scenarios. In this paper we explore a number of ways in which three key traditional agroecological strategies (biodiversification, soil management and water harvesting) can be implemented in the design and management of agroecosystems allowing farmers to adopt a strategy that both increases resilience and provides economic benefits, including mitigation of global warming.  相似文献   
56.
Aftershock locations, source parameters and slip distribution in the coupling zone between the overriding North American and subducted Rivera and Cocos plates were calculated for the 22 January 2003 Tecomán earthquake. Aftershock locations lie north of the El Gordo Graben with a northwest-southeast trend along the coast and superimposed on the rupture areas of the 1932 (M w?=?8.2) and 1995 (M w?=?8.0) earthquakes. The Tecomán earthquake ruptured the northwest sector of the Colima gap, however, half of the gap remains unbroken. The aftershock area has a rectangular shape of 42?±?2 by 56?±?2?km with a shallow dip of roughly 12° of the Wadati-Benioff zone. Fault geometry calculated with the Náb??lek (1984) inversion procedure is: (strike, dip, rake)?=?(277°, 27°, 78°). From the teleseimic body wave spectra and assuming a circular fault model, we estimated source duration of 20?±?2?s, a stress drop of 5.4?±?2.5?MPa and a seismic moment of 2.7?±?.7?×?1020?Nm. The spatial slip distribution on the fault plane was estimated using new additional near field strong motion data (54?km from the epicenter). We confirm their main conclusions, however we found four zones of seismic moment release clearly separated. One of them, not well defined before, is located toward the coast down dip. This observation is the result of adding new data in the inversion. We calculated a maximum slip of 3.2?m, a source duration of 30?s and a seismic moment of 1.88?×?1020?Nm.  相似文献   
57.
Calculation of ground water ages--a comparative analysis   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Castro MC  Goblet P 《Ground water》2005,43(3):368-380
Ground water age is a fundamental, yet complex, concept in ground water hydrology. Discrepancies between results obtained through different modeling approaches for ground water age calculation have been reported, in particular, between ground water ages modeled by advection and direct simulation of ground water ages (e.g., age-mass approach), which includes effects of advection and dispersion. Here, through a series of two-dimensional (2D) simulations, the impact of water mixing through advection and dispersion on modeled 14C and directly simulated ground water ages is assessed. Impact of dispersion on modeled ages is systematically stronger in areas where water velocities are smaller and far more pronounced on 14C ages. This effect is also observed in one-dimensional models. 2D simulations show that longitudinal dispersion generally acts as a "source" of 14C, while vertical dispersion acts as a "sink," leading to apparent younger or older modeled 14C ages as compared to advective and directly simulated ground water ages. The presence of permeable and impermeable faults provides an equally important source for discrepancies, leading to major differences in modeled ages among the three methods considered. Overall, our results show that a 14C modeling approach using a solute transport model for calculating ground water age appears to be more reliable in ground water systems without faults and where water velocities are relatively high than in systems that are relatively more heterogeneous and those where faults are present. Among the three modeling approaches considered here, direct simulation of ground water age seems to yield the most consistent results in complex, heterogeneous ground water flow systems, giving a vertical age structure consistent with ages expected from consideration of the flow system.  相似文献   
58.
Clusters of elevated methane concentrations in aquifers overlying the Barnett Shale play have been the focus of recent national attention as they relate to impacts of hydraulic fracturing. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial extent of high dissolved methane previously observed on the western edge of the play (Parker County) and to evaluate its most likely source. A total of 509 well water samples from 12 counties (14,500 km2) were analyzed for methane, major ions, and carbon isotopes. Most samples were collected from the regional Trinity Aquifer and show only low levels of dissolved methane (85% of 457 unique locations <0.1 mg/L). Methane, when present is primarily thermogenic (δ13C 10th and 90th percentiles of ?57.54 and ?39.00‰ and C1/C2+C3 ratio 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of 5, 15, and 42). High methane concentrations (>20 mg/L) are limited to a few spatial clusters. The Parker County cluster area includes historical vertical oil and gas wells producing from relatively shallow formations and recent horizontal wells producing from the Barnett Shale (depth of ~1500 m). Lack of correlation with distance to Barnett Shale horizontal wells, with distance to conventional wells, and with well density suggests a natural origin of the dissolved methane. Known commercial very shallow gas accumulations (<200 m in places) and historical instances of water wells reaching gas pockets point to the underlying Strawn Group of Paleozoic age as the main natural source of the dissolved gas.  相似文献   
59.
Soil water content is a key variable for biogeochemical and atmospheric coupled processes. Its small‐scale heterogeneity impacts the partitioning of precipitation (e.g., deep percolation or transpiration) by triggering threshold processes and connecting flow paths. Forest hydrologists frequently hypothesized that throughfall and stemflow patterns induce soil water content heterogeneity, yet experimental validation is limited. Here, we pursued a pattern‐oriented approach to explore the relationship between net precipitation and soil water content. Both were measured in independent high‐resolution stratified random designs on a 1‐ha temperate mixed beech forest plot in Germany. We recorded throughfall (350 locations) and stemflow (65 trees) for 16 precipitation events in 2015. Soil water content was measured continuously in topsoil and subsoil (210 profiles). Soil wetting was only weakly related to net precipitation patterns. The precipitation‐induced pattern quickly dissipates and returns to a basic pattern, which is temporally stable. Instead, soil hydraulic properties (by the proxy of field capacity) were significantly correlated with this stable soil water content pattern, indicating that soil structure more than net precipitation drives soil water content heterogeneity. Also, both field capacity and soil water content were lower in the immediate vicinity of tree stems compared to further away at all times, including winter, despite stemflow occurrence. Thus, soil structure varies systematically according to vegetation in our site. We conclude that enhanced macroporosity increases gravity‐driven flow in stem proximal areas. Therefore, although soil water content patterns are little affected by net precipitation, the resulting soil water fluxes may strongly be affected. Specifically, this may further enhance the channelling of stemflow to greater depth and beyond the rooting zone.  相似文献   
60.
Water is one of the major environmental factors limiting plant growth and survival in the Mediterranean region. Quercus suber L. woodlands occupy vast areas in the Iberian Peninsula, frequently under shallow water table conditions. The relative magnitude of soil and groundwater uptake to supply transpiration is not easy to evaluate under these circumstances. We recently developed a conceptual framework for the functioning of the root system in Q. suber that simulates well tree transpiration, based on two types of root behaviour: shallow connected and deep connected. Although this significantly improved knowledge on the functional traits of Mediterranean Q. suber, the approach has the limitation of requiring root sap flow data, which are seldom available. In this work, we present alternative methodologies to assess if trees are connected to groundwater and to estimate the soil and groundwater contributions to tree transpiration. We provide evidence on the tree unrestricted access to groundwater solely based on meteorological, stem sap flow and leaf water potential data. Using a soil mass balance approach, we estimated the yearly soil and groundwater contributions to tree transpiration: 69.7% and 30.3%, respectively. Groundwater uptake became dominant in the dry summer: 73.2% of tree transpiration. Results reproduce extremely well those derived from root modelling. Because of its simplicity both in formulation and data requirements, our approach is potentially liable to be adapted to other groundwater‐dependent Mediterranean oak sites, where interactions between land use and water resources may be relevant. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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